People's CDC, August 31, 2024, COVID-19 Weather Report

COVID wastewater levels are still very high, updated vaccines are now available, and the DNC ended up being a superspreader event.

Sep 04, 2024

Vaccines

On August 22, the FDA approved the updated 2024–2025 mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. According to their news release, these vaccines correspond to the KP.2 Omicron variant, which is circulating at much lower rates currently, but is much closer to other circulating variants than the previous vaccine. On August 30, the FDA approved the updated Novavax COVID-19 vaccine, which also matches current variants better than previous versions. Since we are in the midst of a COVID surge, it’s best to get vaccinated as soon as possible with whatever vaccine you can access.

The Bridge Access Program, which was slated to end this month, is reportedly not covering the updated vaccines for uninsured and underinsured adults, and out of pocket costs are estimated to be around $200. Because of these shortcomings, we will continue to demand continued funding for the Bridge Access Program as well as the Vaccines for Adults Program.

Thanks for reading People's CDC! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Other

The 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) held in Chicago from August 19–22 ended up becoming a COVID superspreader event. Many attendees, including Hillary Clinton, have reported testing positive afterward. This comes as no surprise, as the majority of attendees did not exercise COVID precautions like masking. Indeed, organizers discouraged mask wearing unless “necessary due to a disability.”

This provides further evidence for Democratic Party’s memory-holing of COVID. There has been no acknowledgment of the current surge and many people are carrying on “as normal.” These behaviors further accelerate COVID transmission, and will eventually contribute to the ever-increasing burden of short- and long-term illnesses. The current CDC guidelines, while insufficient, do recommend that sick individuals wear a mask, and this is also outlined on the Illinois Department of Public Health website. However, it is clear that people are not even following these minimal guidelines. Policies for such events should be updated to enforce multiple layers of protection, such as those outlined in our Safer Gatherings Guide. These would include: masking in all indoor settings for five days prior (including during events), universal pre-event testing, and checking for symptoms and exposure, among others. We are able to see successful instances of masking at events, such as during the protests that were taking place outside the DNC.

We hope the Biden/Harris administration will not continue to sweep COVID under the rug, and that the Harris campaign will be able to break with Biden's claims that he “ended the pandemic” and provide much-needed public health resources.

The Weather

As of August 29, 2024, wastewater levels continue to rise, signaling a continued acceleration of the current surge. With schools beginning to resume around the country, we will likely not experience a significant decrease any time soon. We urge you to continue taking precautions (such as wearing well-fitting respirators, staying updated on your vaccines, testing, and ventilating spaces).

Wastewater activity is either “High” or “Very High” in 47 states according to the Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) dashboard. Activity is “Moderate” in 0 states, “Low” in Michigan, and there is no data available for Arizona, North Dakota, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam.

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of maroon, orange, and gray displaying SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Viral Activity level as of August 31, 2024, where deeper tones correlate to higher viral activity and gray indicates “Insufficient,” or “No Data.” Text above the map reads “Very High” or “High” levels in 47 states. Viral activity is “Low” in one state, Michigan, and data is unavailable for North Dakota, Arizona, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At the bottom, text reads People’s CDC. Source: CDC.

Graphic source: CDC

According to the Wastewater COVID-19 National and Regional Trends dashboard, COVID wastewater levels are beginning to plateau slightly in all regions except for the Northeast and Midwest, which are experiencing an increase. The highest levels are still in the West as of 8/29/2024. The South is very close behind, with the Midwest and Northeast at lower levels. In the two-week provisional period (from 8/10/2024 to 8/14/2024), levels are expected to increase again slightly in all regions except for the West, which is expected to experience a marked decrease.

In order to access local COVID wastewater levels, you can refer to the CDC’s state/territory trends page as well as the WastewaterSCAN dashboard. State/local public health wastewater trackers may also be available.

A line graph with the title, “COVID-19 Wastewater Trends as of August 31, 2024” with “Wastewater Viral Activity Level” indicated on the left-hand vertical axis, going from 0-12, and “Week Ending” across the horizontal axis, with date labels ranging from 7/13/24 to 8/24/24. Text above the graph reads “Viral activity very high nationwide, and Highest in the West.” A key at the bottom indicates line colors. National is black, Midwest is orange, South is purple, Northeast is light blue, and West is green. Overall, levels are trending upward in Midwest, South, and Northeast regions, while levels are trending downward in West region over the displayed time frame. Text at the bottom reads “People’s CDC. Source: CDC.

Graphic source: CDC

As of August 27, 2024, COVID levels are “growing” or “likely growing” in 20 states and territories according to the CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics dashboard. Eighteen states are experiencing “stable or uncertain” levels, levels are “likely declining” in 9 states, and levels are “not estimated” in 4 states.

This model utilizes emergency department visit data to estimate COVID transmission’s R_t, which is an estimate of the average number of new infections caused by each infectious person. An R_tgreater than 1.0 indicates that infections are growing, while an R_t less than 1.0 indicates that they’re declining.

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of purple and gray displaying the CDC COVID Model: Current Epidemic Growth Status based on emergency department visits as of August 27, 2024, where purple tones indicate growing or likely growing, teal tones indicate declining or likely declining, and gray indicates “Stable or Uncertain.” States without predictions are represented in white. Text above the map reads “CDC Predicts transmission is ‘Growing’ or ‘Likely Growing’ in 20 states.” Six states are light teal and have “Likely Declining” status. Three states are a deeper teal and have “Declining” status, while twenty states have “Growing” or Likely Growing” Status. All other states and territories are either “Stable or Uncertain” or did not receive estimates. Text at the bottom reads “People’s CDC. Source: CDC.

Graphic source: CDC

Variants

According to the CDC’s variant tracking dashboard, KP3.1.1 has officially overtaken KP.3 as the prevailing variant, making up 19.8% of all currently circulating strains. Nowcast modeling projects that KP3.1.1 will increase to 42.2% by 8/31/2024, followed by KP.3 and LB.1 at 14.2% and 13.5%, respectively.

Two stacked bar charts with two-week periods for sample collection dates on the horizontal x-axis and percentage of viral lineages among infections on the vertical y-axis. Title of the first bar chart reads “Weighted Estimates: Variant proportions based on reported genomic sequencing results” with collection dates ranging from 5/25/2024 to 8/3/2024. The second chart’s title reads “Nowcast: model-based projected estimates of variant proportions,” dates ranging from 8/1/24 to 8/31/2024. KP.3.1.1 (light teal) is projected to increase to 42.2% and remain the dominant variant by August 31, 2024, according to Nowcast modeling. KP.3 is predicted to decrease to 14.2%, along with LB.1 (light brown) and KP.2.3 (light blue) at 13.5% and 14.6% respectively. Other variants are at smaller percentages represented by a handful of other colors as small slivers. The legend with a list of variants, proportions, and their associated colors is on the far right of the bar charts.

Graphic source: CDC Variant Tracker

Long COVID

A 2023 study published in JAMA Pediatrics regarding Long COVID in children has been retracted. According to Retraction Watch, the study’s authors misrepresented data and were inconsistent in applying the definition of Long COVID. The findings ended up capturing less than a third of the incidence of Long COVID cases in children (after re-analysis), causing the study to grossly underestimate the incidence rate and the period of recovery.

On the contrary, a systematic review published in Pediatrics recently found that 1 in 6 children have persistent symptoms after a COVID infection for at least 3 months, suggesting that COVID protection and treatment in children, a vulnerable population, is of utmost importance.

Wins

The CDC will be providing technical support to hospitals in order to ensure that they will transition to CMS’s new COVID case reporting requirement. On November 1, 2024, reporting will resume, allowing us to once again have access to crucial information. Case data is paramount for keeping track with current COVID trends. This win highlights the possibility of regaining access to resources that have been taken away from us, emphasizing the importance of organizing to ensure we receive better data.

Thanks for reading People's CDC! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Take Action

Ensuring safer indoor air quality to prevent transmission of infectious diseases is essential. Tell your elected officials to support Representative Don Beyer’s proposed legislation, which will encourage businesses to monitor air quality and improve ventilation and air filtration.

Notes: 1) The numbers in this report were current as of 8/2/2024. 2) Check out the links throughout & see our website for more at https://peoplescdc.org. 3) Subscribe to our newsletter: People’s CDC | Substack.