People’s CDC November 20 COVID-19 Weather Report

Ongoing High Transmission In Many States, Local Wastewater Metrics, Long COVID Updates, Send Letter to HICPAC, and Safer Gatherings

Nov 21, 2023

Published November 20, 2023

The Weather

The CDC ended their national US COVID community-level transmission map in May. We created this map to document 7-day cumulative COVID rates based on laboratory-confirmed COVID cases in states that are still tracking and reporting. Obviously, this map cannot be relied upon to give accurate information about transmission risk because only a fraction of COVID cases are actually counted. Still, it provides us a visual reminder that the COVID pandemic is not over. You can read more about our map and methods here.

Graphic depicts 2 maps of the United States. The map on the left is titled, “October 12, 2023,“ and the map on the right of the graphic is titled, “October 26, 2023.” A key in the lower half of the graphic is labeled, “Transmission Levels (New Cases Per 100,000),” and indicates concentration levels: maroon for Very High, orange for High, salmon for Substantial, beige for Moderate, and diagonal black stripes for areas with no data.

Going from the October 12th to the October 26th maps, while transmission levels in eastern states mostly remain High, a handful of eastern states have seen a decrease in transmission levels from Very High to High, or from High to Substantial. Some Western states have seen a change in transmission levels from High to Substantial or Very High to High, while Idaho and Arizona saw an increase from Substantial to High transmission levels. Oklahoma saw an increase from Substantial to High transmission levels, while Kansas saw a decrease from High to Substantial transmission levels. — Graphic Source: People’s CDC

Wastewater

The wastewater monitoring landscape is in flux! We remind you that you should find the most local source of wastewater for you, and use that as your best source of pandemic monitoring. You might find your city or one nearby on Biobot’s website. Scroll to the bottom and click the “SHOW ALL” button.

You can also check out WastewaterSCAN. You will see two boxes next to the words “Local Data Near.” Put your zip code in one, and select the Sars-CoV-2 for the second box. Then, you’ll see the company’s assessment of your risk level.

The image below is the resulting risk level for 48081, a zip code in Macomb County, Michigan.

Graphic includes a bright indigo box with an orange arc in the center. Beneath is the text “high” in large font, with the caption “SARS-CoV-2 near Warren, MI.” Above the graphic is the text “Local Data Near,” with two white boxes with purple text on the right hand side labeled with “48081” (zip code) and “SARS-CoV-2” respectively. — Graphic Source: WastewaterSCAN

If you’re wanting a graph to compare current wastewater levels to previous periods of time, click “DASHBOARD” on the upper right hand corner of the site. A US map will come up with a search bar at the top of it. Put your zip code into the map or scroll into the nearest wastewater site manually. When you click on the purple dot representing your nearest monitoring site, you’ll see a panel on the left titled “Overview for [CITY, STATE].” On the upper right hand side of that panel, there is a purple arrow. Click it. Then you can see trends. “Last 3 months” is the default period of time, but you can change the period of time you’re looking at by clicking the down arrow and selecting a different range.

The image below shows a local graph for the wastewater site nearest that same Michigan zip code.

A line graph titled, “SARS-CoV-2: No trend and high concentration in the last 21 days.” With the title is an orange box with black text that reads, “High,” indicating high concentration overall in the last 21 days. The y-axis scales from 0 to 4,000 PMMoV. The x-axis spans from November 2022 to November 2023. The graph depicts a peak of 3,838 PMMoV Normalized in December 2022. The trend decreases, and then increases again in late October 2023 to current data, at 1,260 PMMoV Normalized on November 14, 2023. — Graphic Source: WastewaterSCAN

Below is the graph for national wastewater data. Your local data will likely differ from national trends, so it is best to look up the wastewater site nearest you.

A line graph titled, “SARS-CoV-2: Upward trend and high concentration in the last 21 days.” Under the title, black text reads, “High,” indicating high concentration overall in the last 21 days. The y-axis scales from 0 to 800 PMMoV. The x-axis spans from November 2022 to November 2023. The graph depicts a peak of 835.5 PMMoV Normalized in December 2022. The trend decreases, and then increases again in late October 2023 to current data, at 226.1 PMMoV Normalized on November 14, 2023. — Graphic Source: WastewaterSCAN

Wins

We are heartened to see masks at protests throughout the country. Whether it’s #StopCopCity actions to oppose further militarization of police in this country or marches, die-ins, and disruptions to oppose occupation and genocide in Palestine, people see that we can demand and create another world together, and that we can keep each other safe while we do it.

Long COVID

A recent study has been published that is relevant for those considering taking nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid) or molnupiravir (Lagevrio) to reduce the risk of Long COVID. This study of Medicare enrollees, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, found that nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir were associated with a small reduction in the incidence of Long COVID.

On repeat infections, Nature Communications published a cohort study done in Spain and the UK comparing COVID cases, reinfections, and negative-test controls which demonstrated that reinfections had a higher risk of Long COVID. This is a big deal– it builds on the growing literature demonstrating the dangers of repeat infections, pointing again to the importance of taking this pandemic seriously and avoiding infection, as many times as we can.

Take Action

Sign NNU’s letter urging the CDC “to reject HICPAC’s weak draft and create a new one that protects health care workers and their patients!”

And check out this piece published in JAMA this week arguing that physicians, hospital administrators, and regulators have an ethical obligation to protect patients through masking.

Safer Gatherings

It’s that time of year again! Please ensure your holiday gatherings are as safe as possible by implementing as many layers of protection as you can!

Graphic includes a gradient orange square with large, white text at the top reading “WE’RE HOLDING A SAFER IN PERSON GATHERING, HERE’S HOW:” Under the text is a list of eleven items in black text with white highlighting, each with a colored-square bullet point. The list reads [red square] MASK INDOORS FIVE DAYS PRIOR, [red square] UNIVERSAL PRE-EVENT TEST, [red square] CHECKING FOR SYMPTOMS AND EXPOSURE, [purple square] UNIVERSAL MASKING, [purple square] PROOF OF VACCINATION, [purple square] GATHERING OUTDOORS, VENTILATION & AIR QUALITY, [purple square] SMALL, [purple square] CONSISTENT GROUPS, [purple square] PROVIDE SUBSTANTIVE ONLINE OPTIONS, [peach square] UNIVERSAL POST-EVENT TESTING, [peach square] CONTACT TRACING. Below list, white text reads “EXPLORE THE FALL 2023 SAFER GATHERINGS GUIDE ON OUR SUBSTACK.”

On that note, we will not be publishing a Weather Report next week, because our team will be dedicating our time to revamping our current Safer Gathering Toolkit instead! We look forward to sharing with you soon!

Notes:

1) The numbers in this report were current as of 11/17/2023.

2) Changes in testing access as well as data reporting have led many federal data sources to become less reliable.

3) Check out the links throughout & see our website for more!

https://peoplescdc.org

People's CDC